Kentucky Derby Betting Angles presented by FanDuel: Homebreds vs. Auction Purchases

Is the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner more likely to be a homebred – a horse racing for his breeder – or the graduate of a public sale that offers yearlings or 2-year-olds in training to the highest bidder?

Based on the 64 Kentucky Derbies run since 1960, it’s a coin flip. Exactly half of those 64 Derby winners changed hands at public auction for prices ranging from $1,200 (Canonero II, the 1971 winner) to $4 million (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000 winner). Most of the others were homebreds, though a few of the Derby winners were private purchases, and 2022 upsetter Rich Strike was acquired for $30,000 in a claiming race.

Through the decades, there hasn’t been that much change in the ratio of homebred vs. auction horses winning the Derby. From 1960-’69, three Derby winners sold at auction; from 1970-’79 six sold; from 1980-’89 four sold; from 1990-’99 six sold; from 2000-2009 six sold; from 2010-2019 five sold; and from 2020-23 two sold.

Of the 20 horses expected to be entered in this year’s Derby, 12 were acquired at public auction for as much as $2.3 million (Sierra Leone) or as little as $11,000 (West Saratoga). All but one of the 12 sold as yearlings, with Just a Touch the lone juvenile sale graduate at a price of $300,000. Note that Mage, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, was purchased for $290,000 as a 2-year-old in Maryland.

It’s been proven time and again that the Kentucky Derby is a race that can’t be bought by an owner with the deepest pockets. The aforementioned Fusaichi Pegasus is a rare exception. The Mr. Prospector colt was the sale topper at the 1998 Keeneland July Yearling Sale and the highest priced yearling sold at Keeneland since the $13.1 million world record price for Seattle Dancer in 1985.

Trained by Neil Drysdale for Japanese owner Tomonori Tsurumaki, Fusaichi Pegasus is one of 23 Kentucky Derby runners that cost $1 million or more at public auction. He is the only winner from that group.

Sierra Leone brought the highest price at the 2022 Saratoga Yearling Sale and is a nose short of being unbeaten in four starts. A son of the red-hot sire Gun Runner, who is newly elected to the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame, Sierra Leone was produced from a Grade 1-winning mare, Heavenly Love, a daughter of the A.P. Indy stallion Malibu Moon. There is a lot to like about this colt, with one exception: He appears to have no early speed and will be pace and traffic dependent coming from far back in a big field.

The next highest-priced horse in the lineup is Forever Young, the unbeaten Japanese-bred colt by Real Steel, the latter a grandson of 1989 American Horse of the Year Sunday Silence. Forever Young cost about $720,000 at a Japanese sale as a yearling. Japanese horses have improved significantly over the last several decades and it is not unusual to see them winning some of the world’s biggest races.

There have been several attempts by Japanese horsemen to win the Kentucky Derby, but so far they have fallen short. Forever Young, coming off victories in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, may give them their best chance, particularly because he has enough tactical speed to get a good position early in the race.

There are several bargain auction purchase among Kentucky Derby winners in recent decades, including Real Quiet (1998 winner, $17,000 yearling), Funny Cide (2003, $22,000 yearling), Mine That Bird (2009, $9,500 yearling), and I’ll Have Another (2012, $35,000 2-year-old).

However, in the last 10 years, as racing has become more of a business to many ownership groups, the “sweet spot” for auction prices seems to be in the $250,000 to $500,000 range. Nyquist (2016 winner, $400,000 2-year-old), Always Dreaming (2017, $350,000 yearling), Justify (2018, $500,000 yearling), Authentic (2020, $350,000 yearling), and Mage ($290,000 2-year-old) all fit in that price range. Another Derby winner, American Pharoah, was bought back at a yearling sale by his breeder, Ahmed Zayat, for $300,000).

Of the seven homebreds expected to be entered in the Derby, Repole Stable’s Fierceness will be the most heavily bet, considering his impressive performances in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and this year’s Florida Derby – a race that has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners.