NASCAR Talladega odds: A low-risk, high-reward pick for Sunday’s GEICO 500

Live NASCAR odds for Sunday's GEICO 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX) at Talladega Superspeedway show Joey Logano (+900) as the race favorite, followed by Ryan Blaney (+1000), Brad Keselowski (+1000), Denny Hamlin (+1200) and William Byron (+1200).

Because drivers draft in large packs at Talladega in order to find speed, one small mistake can result in large crashes, which are often referred to as "the big one."

This makes the racing at superspeedways like Talladega very unpredictable, and, in turn, tough to handicap.

My personal strategy is to not go overboard and burn too much bankroll at these races, but because longer shots can overperform due to the draft and/or attrition, there are spots to pick off value at Talladega.

Again, let's not go nuts, but 30-1 NASCAR odds for a driver who has performed extremely well at Talladega during the Next Gen era is a worthy dart to throw.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Talladega

*Odds as of Saturday afternoon

There have been four races at Talladega since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car at the start of the 2022 Cup Series season.

Here are the top five drivers — in terms of driver rating — across those four races, along with NASCAR odds from FanDuel for Sunday's GEICO 500:

1. Ryan Blaney: +1000
2. Chase Elliott: +1300
3. William Byron: +1200
4. Kyle Larson: +2000
5. Erik Jones: +3000

That list alone illustrates why I'm taking a shot on Jones, but it's important to note that he's not just riding around at the back and stealing good finishes by avoiding wrecks.

Over this sample of four races, Jones has led the second-most laps, showing he also has the ability to run at the front of the field at Talladega.

Again, I'm taking a very conservative approach for this race, but am taking a low-risk, high-reward position on Jones to take the checkered flag.

The bet: Erik Jones (+3000) to Win — FanDuel

In North Carolina and interested in NASCAR betting? You can now sign up for NC sports betting, as legal online betting went live on March 11.